The logic of chip shortage

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The Fed's dollar hegemony cuts the leek cycle + the Sino-US trade war + the epidemic + the N element. When the normal supply chain is destroyed:

The first wave : The US entity list companies represented by Huawei have prepared goods for one or two years, which has drastically caused an ecological imbalance in the supply chain, leading to the collapse of direct wafer production capacity of many small companies.

The second wave : Huawei and other competitors of sanctioned companies see the opportunity to replace them, and they are also arranging more than one year of inventory to further squeeze wafer production capacity. Directly lead to a relatively large chip design company is also short of wafers.

The third wave : Panic stocking in customer factories, exacerbating chip shortages. Start with a large-scale shortage of ultra-low-end chips in the copycat market.

Fourth wave : The chip design company used milk to grab production capacity, and finally only got 50% or less of wafer production capacity. It can only adjust the market, product, and customer structure to ensure the core high-quality customer demand, and then directly cut it off Low-end products and low-end customers have led to a lack of chips in the most copycat market.

Fifth wave : The United States madly printed US dollars to release water and cut leeks, which led to a sharp rise in raw materials. But this time, India and other US-supported backup supply chains were hit hard by the epidemic. At present, the only safe production base for bulk commodities in the world is in China. China has also chosen to increase prices, and chip prices have also skyrocketed. The more the shortage, the more demand there is.

The sixth wave : In three to five years, small companies with no special characteristics in the chip field will basically have no chance. Big fish eat small fish more frequently. Small fish have to look for thighs and godfathers to survive.

Seventh wave : With the popularity of the science and technology innovation board, the chip industry chain is enjoying a gluttonous feast, IPO flags are fluttering everywhere, creating domestically-made alternative giants, and wafer production capacity is even tighter! ! ! The flood of capital has added to the flames. In addition, some chip makers, agents, traders, and related monsters all dispatched roasted seeds and nuts, especially in market segments, to further promote the lack of chips! !

   In short, the wave of domestic substitution has arrived, showing an irreversible trend. The long-term shortage of stocks is no surprise, and it is a bit exaggerated. It is also very normal for a large area of core shortage in three to five years.